Only 19 days before this year’s presidential election, it is worth looking at the state of the race in Michigan, the site of Donald Trump’s most surprising victory in 2016.

On paper it is tempting to say that things appear to be more or less exactly where they were at this point four years ago. If anything, Hillary Clinton’s seemingly insurmountable 11-point lead in polling averages on Oct. 15, 2016, seems far more discouraging than the seven-point one currently held by Joe Biden.

One anomaly is the apparent closeness of the Senate race. If recent polling is to be believed, the businessman John James is within as much as a single point of the Democratic incumbent, Sen. Gary Peters. According to a survey jointly conducted by Siena College and The New York Times, while Michigan voters support Biden by an eight-point margin, they are more or less evenly split, 43-42, on James and Peters. (The Real Clear Politics polling average shows Peters up 5.)

This is, not to put too fine a point on it, impossible. Michigan, like many other states, has a long history of split-ticket voting, but it tends to work in the opposite direction, with many …read more

Source:: The Week – Politics


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